An Interview With Economist Nouriel Roubini
Q. You are the economist known for predicting the financial downturn in 2008. What do you believe is happening to the economy immediately
A. The consensus amongst economists is that they see the financial system that was contracting for the dc red hood t shirt 720 last two quarters at 6 % going into optimistic financial growth by the second half of this 12 months. . Women’s superman and supergirl Printed Long Sleeve Tee Shirt . . I imagine that the rate of economic contraction is going to slow from unfavorable 6 % in the last two quarters to detrimental 2 percent by the fourth quarter.
Subsequent year, I believe that the growth charge goes to be low — 0.5 % for the U.S.in comparison with the consensus view of [plus] 2 p.c. I consider the unemployment price this yr is going to go nicely above 10 percent and will likely be effectively above eleven % next 12 months, so even when we are technically out of a recession, we’re going to really feel like we are in a recession.
I do agree that there’s an enchancment in the sense that the rate of contraction just isn’t going to be as a lot because it has been in the last couple of quarters, but I nonetheless believe that the bottom of the economy [shall be seen] toward the start or middle of next year. So my views are extra bearish than the consensus.
I imagine things are going to be very mediocre throughout the world; specifically, in Europe and in Japan. They’ll only get out of their recession toward the tip of subsequent 12 months.
So you are still Dr. Doom
No, I am not Dr. Doom. I am Dr. Realist. I don’t imagine we are going to find yourself in a near-depression. Six months in the past I was more worried about an L-formed close to-depression. At the moment, after the very aggressive policy actions taken by the U.S. and other countries . . . we are, dc red hood t shirt 720 as an alternative, in the middle of a U.
You think the Obama administration is on the right track with the stimulus packages and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernacke pumping cash into the system
Sure, I have to give credit score to the administration. Within 30 days of coming to power, they did an $800 billion stimulus bundle, a new program to deal with mortgages and foreclosures, and also a bank plan that, when Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner came with details, made the markets rally sharply.